SHARES, GOLD, OIL Here’s where to invest in future
In order to 2016 be fruitful we should explore the market and invest wisely. After a tumultuous 2015, in which the Swiss franc sharply strengthened and oil prices fell another 25% follow us another uncertain year in which possible significant progress values of energy, currencies, stocks and other financial instruments.
The economic situation in the most important economies in the world are not likely to change significantly. The US economy will grow at a moderate pace while the economies of China, Japan and the euro zone will grow slower than expected and the desire of businessmen and governments of those countries. For this purpose, will, unlike most central banks will continue to implement a very loose monetary policy, the US central bank during the year to raise interest rates several times. This will likely result in further strengthening of the US dollar relative to most other currencies and particularly against the euro as it is speculated that the European Central Bank will have to further lower the already record-low interest rates. It is possible that in the course of the US dollar, at least briefly become stronger than the euro.
Since the inflation rate in Switzerland is very low and threatens deflation, it is possible that the Swiss National Bank will be forced to act more aggressively to weaken still overvalued CHF. Analysts believe that Admiral Markets is naizgledniji scenario exchange rate of CHF weakening of several percent.
After 2015 by American SP500 index ended at the same level that was started, we are probably in a good year. The reason for the absence of growth was the adjustment to stop the injection of money into the financial system and fear of the consequences of the first rate hike in nearly a decade.
But just to raise interest rates a sign that it is now even overly cautious US central bank believes that the US economy is in good condition and that this year the situation will continue to improve. Based on this expected growth in the value of major US index of at least 5-10%. Stocks in developed European markets might grow a bit more on the basis of a loose monetary policy in Europe.
With the teaching of raising interest rates in the US in keeping the value of gold, which brings no return, will become less attractive. Many owners decide the gold will be on sale and capital investment in other investment classes which will probably lead to a drop in gold prices from the current $ 1,074 to under $ 1,000 an ounce.
For several weeks the price of oil BRENT fails to fall below the level of about $ 35 which may indicate the imminent completion of the downward trend. For now, the oil on the market is still too many, and it is always possible additional decrease of a few percent, but investors and speculators still watching the long run and would soon be able to re massively buy oil. The global production capacity are just a few percent higher than the current demand which each year is steadily increasing. In such a situation the decline of capital investments in oil wells and other infrastructure from 30% in 2015 and the expected decline of the additional 20-30% this year, will sooner or later was cause shortages and a sharp rise in the price of black gold. Analysts Admiral Markets believe that on the basis of expected shortages in the future very quickly could lead to significant purchases of petroleum contracts which could cause an increase in prices of even several dozen percent during the year.